| by James Halperin
The work of grading services is far from over. If there is any
end in sight, it’s a very long way off and of little concern to
current collectors -- or Collectors Universe stockholders.
To cite a similar miscalculation of supply: People have been
saying for decades that shipments of United States gold coins
coming from European banks were on the verge of drying up. It
hasn’t happened. Nobody knows how many coins the banks have
left, nor can anyone make a meaningful guess as to the number of
coins that remain uncertified.
Submission fees and market conditions determine the rate at
which coins are sent to grading services. Remember, coins are
generally submitted to increase their value and/or salability.
When business is booming, sellers may be more inclined to use a
grading service to enhance the value of their briskly selling
goods. In a depressed coin market, submissions usually decrease.
As expected, collector interest in the new commemorative
quarters has spilled over. I imagine grading services are now
receiving an unprecedented number of Washington Quarters. If
interest continues, even such animals as average uncirculated 1964
quarters could eventually become candidates for submission. Those
who consider this an impossibility may not remember that in the
mid 1960’s nice uncirculated Morgan Dollars could be obtained in
quantity for about 10% over face value. At the time, I can
remember mint sealed bags of 1000 Morgans trading in the $1,150
range - that’s $1.15 apiece. Who could have foreseen paying $15
just to certify an average mint state (today’s 63)
Morgan?
More than a billion Washington quarters were minted in 1964,
and certainly at least 1% of this original mintage must have
survived in MS-63 or better condition. According to my calculator,
that’s a lot of potential grading service submissions.
I won’t predict the longevity of any particular grading
service, only the viability of third-party certification as an
institution: Favorable coin markets may come and go but grading
services are here to stay!
Coin grading services are similar to many other practical
inventions. As a consumer, you might choose to drive a Ford, but
wouldn’t you prefer any automobile to the horse and buggy? Your
choice of computer equipment may differ from mine, yet I doubt
either of us would enjoy being without them, despite our feelings
on certain days when our operating system crashes or we lose a
file.
Of course some numismatists believe grading services don’t
benefit the hobby at all. As a youngster, I remember visiting a
coin shop with the intention of buying a Redbook. The proprietor
responded to my request by informing me that he wasn’t about to
let a few idiots from Wisconsin tell him how to price his coins
and that I shouldn’t either. Today he probably slanders Mark
Salzberg and David Hall instead.
I never bought a coin from that dealer, but I did lots of
business with another fellow who took the time to explain that the
cover of the Redbook says it’s a “Guide”, in other words a
tool to help numismatists independently determine coin values. I
encourage you to adopt the same attitude toward grading services.
For a fee, they can offer an informed opinion concerning the
authenticity and grade of a coin. Beyond that, you’re on your
own.
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