| by James Halperin
I can’t count the times I’ve been asked, “How’s the
coin market?” Lately, I tend to respond with imprecise answers,
like, “Pretty good”, “It depends,” or “Fine, thank
you.” Until quite recently the coin market has followed cycles
of varying duration. Often these ups and downs have had a
universal impact. Coins were either hot or not.
Times are changing. Our market seems to have become segmented
and much more sophisticated. For example, the activity in the coin
market now has little influence over those who collect paper
money. A few years ago, while coin prices languished, the currency
market caught fire. Now coin prices seem to be rising even faster
than currency prices.
When the coin market is moving in lots of different directions,
that makes dealers far less vulnerable to unified swings in
activity. Over the last ten years, we’ve seen a gradual, and
comfortable escalation in the value of classic rarities. Many rare
coins have proven their worth. Our marketplace is healthy and
collector-driven, no longer influenced by speculators, or thought
of as a passing fad like the tulip bulb craze in Holland. Let’s
hope that continues. The willingness of buyers to support the
market at the highest levels benefits everyone involved in the
hobby by providing stability. To me, the most promising aspect of
today’s coin market is the fact that, while collector demand has
mushroomed, prices are still rather reasonable. How unlike the
speculative frenzies of 1980 and 1989!
Thinking about previous opportunities or future possibilities
seldom prepares us to deal with current circumstances, but studies
into history and futurism are both valuable disciplines. (As a
coin dealer and science fiction novelist, I get to do both!) The
best advice I can offer about market timing is to seek expert
advice, test the water by buying and selling small amounts, and
then carefully consider as many options as you can dream up. Now
might be an excellent time to sell your collection, take advantage
of opportunities to add to it, or simply keep your current
holdings intact. The best time to trade is when doing so suits
your individual needs and goals. I hope the days of having to deal
with wild and often unreported price fluctuations are past. A
well-informed public is what has recently caused demand for rare
coins to exceed the supply.
Numismatics is a more mature and liquid marketplace. Values are
becoming well established. Information is much more plentiful
today than it was ten years ago, and will increase exponentially
over the next ten. In my view this coming of age provides
wonderful opportunities for buyers and sellers alike.
|
