| by James Halperin
In our world of ever-thickening data smog, coin pricing
information has not been left behind. Joining the venerated
redbook, the blue- and blackbooks, Coin World Trends, Coin Prices,
CDN and CCDN, are a plethora of new price guides. A recent search
of “coins” on Amazon.com produced 1079 separate coin books,
about a third of which appear to offer mostly pricing information.
On the Internet, pricing sources abound, the best of which include
Coin Universe’s and Numismedia’s daily price guides. You can
also find CCE & CCN prices on the Net, not to mention auction
results. (At Heritage’s site, we now post our prices realized
right next to the entire lot description, and our free-access
archives currently go back to January 1997 - as of this writing,
approximately 35 sales representing about 75,000 lots. By next
year, I assume those numbers will double.)
These pricing guides are useful tools, especially when their
limitations are clearly understood. Most of the printed guides
state that their authors or publishers don’t buy or sell coins
and warn that the values they suggest are intended only as a general
yardstick. Most people who use these guides do buy and sell
coins and must contend with specific prices. This makes the
users of price guides very different from the producers.
When evaluating truly scarce and rare coins, I find it most
productive to view each potential transaction as an independent
event. Just as no two coins are identical, each buying or selling
experience or situation should be considered unique. I try to
consider the state of the market in general, the market
temperature of the series, whether or not the coin has waiting
retail buyers, general cash flow and inventory levels of the coin
industry, which major auction sales are coming up and whether
those sales contain similar coins, whether any hoards have
recently been discovered, whether the seller is a regular supplier
who gives me “first shot” at any coins offered for sale (I
always pay more for first shot), and so on. And that’s before
any observation about how nice the coin is relative to the stated
grade!
Most price guides suggest that the values they list are what
any motivated buyer might be willing to pay. You must keep in mind
that both buyer and seller are trying to make the best deal for
themselves (hopefully subject to ethics, and preserving reputation
and long-term relationships). Motivation, or the lack of it, can
occur for many different reasons. Perhaps prompted by wishful
thinking, some collectors believe a dealer should always be ready
to make an offer for every coin, and that such offers should
always correspond to a certain price guide’s suggestion of
value. In many cases, a dealer is thrilled to oblige, but when it
doesn’t happen, the seller can become annoyed, most often with
the dealer rather than the producers of the price guides.
In the context of scarce and rare coins, pricing guides often
work to the benefit of the buyer by setting what the seller views
as the upper limit. Some coins trade so infrequently that by the
time a new example becomes available, all price records are
obsolete. Other times, the grade or scarcity of the coin, or its
unusual attractiveness, will justify a price far higher than
anything you are likely to find in print. I’ve witnessed
numerous instances where buyers would have gladly paid more than
the price guides suggested, but the seller’s confidence in the
guide’s information made this unnecessary. Anyone who questions
a dealer’s willingness to occasionally disregard the price
guides need only review the prices realized from any major auction
sale to discover that this happens quite often.
Despite their inherent limitations, pricing guides provide a
valuable service to the hobby and business. There is no question
that pricing information increases the confidence of buyers. What
I would caution against is becoming too dependent on these guides.
They are not intended to replace your individual research and
knowledge.
Reviewing auction results and dealer price lists can be both
enjoyable and educational. Viewing lots of coins at major shows
and auctions is even better. Compare such observation with values
listed in different pricing guides and you’ll become a better
informed and more successful buyer and seller.
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